On the various Deepak Punia criticisms, I think it's a bit unfair. He was wrong to be so defensive once he got the lead but that was probably the strategy his coach employed. He's only 22 years old and i don't think he has the clout yet to go against the strategy suggested. The San Marino wrestler is actually an American wrestler who trains with David Taylor. He wrestles for San Marino because San Marino gives him dual citizenship because his great grand father was from there, and with Taylor here he's not otherwise going to wrestle in the Olympics.
I do think he was overhyped but that's not his fault either. I researched analyses about wrestling athletes and I didn't find a single one (other than by Indians) that had him as a potential medal winner. They listed 5 other wrestlers as potential medalists including Amine (the San Marino wrestler). Now, that doesn't usually mean anything (Ravi Dahia was not mentioned as a potential medalist either). A couple of Indian journalists on twitter mentioned that he had a lucky draw and would get to the seminfinals but that it was a 50/50 bout against Amine, which it was.
On Vinesh Phoghat, some of the people who hyped her seem surprised at her loss. They don't think she choked, they think she wrestled well but was outwrestled, and they are confused because she has pinned this wrestler and won the bout easily twice this year. Also, her first round win was against a Rio medalist, and they say she wrestled really well there.
Btw, I'd like to mention here that in my research online, people who know this stuff did not think Bajrang Punia was a medal hopeful (let alone gold contender). The Japanese, Russian, Azeri, Armenian, Kazakh and Hungarian wrestlers were all mentioned in various articles/analyses, and Bajrang wasn't mentioned once. Even the Indian coaching staff (in an article Bad posted here) does not seem to think he has much of a chance. That said, he got a good draw (only 2 of the above 6 are in his half of the draw) and some Indian experts on twitter think he should get to the semifinals (although they refer to the Kyrgyz wrestler in the first round as a bit of a wild card - difficult to beat on his day but it isn't often his day). If he wants a medal, he needs to win against one of the 2 in his half of the draw (Azeri and Kazakh, they think he'll most likely lose to the Azeri in teh semifinal but most likely beat the Kazhak in the bronze medal play off).
Still, 5 medals is awesome, with potential for 4 more (women's hockey, Neeraj Chopra, Aditi Ashok and Bajrang Punia). If we can convert even 2 of those 4, it's still an improvement over London and our best performance ever. Improvement is going to be slow. I'm just hoping we hit 7 in Tokyo, 10 in Doha, 12 in LA, 15 in Brisbane. At that rate, we'll surely get to 30 medals before I die
Exactly what I thought could have been missing in the training. In fact, the Chinese woman shooter who won the gold in rifle categorically said that her coach created "nerve-wrecking conditions" to simulate the pressure of Olympics.
I think what went wrong fundamentally was that there was a denial of
pressure. I believe the system and the training regimen were geared
towards making the shooters relaxed. It was almost like you just have to
go and do your work, shoot normally, and bang! you end up with a medal.
But
it never pans out that way at the Olympics. One of the biggest mistakes
you can make on the big stage is to try and run away from pressure.
In fact, what Rana did by wearing that t-shirt was an unintentional simulation of pressure and as expected Manu Bhaker lost to Yadav there. Rather than taking positive from that, the shooters whined and kicked dust.
guys... let's not come to conclusions. As Bad said, Deepak Punia will be sleepless and he will be in hell at-least for next 1 year , bcoz the way he lost , that too coming so close to win an Olympic Medal.
I don't think heis completely fit in Bronze medal round. Also he is carrying shoulder injury from past 1 year. Also seems like he is not prepared well and could not able to handle pressure in S.F & B.M round. However I'm also disappointed that he didn't win a medal despite getting an easy draw.
Reg his switch. Since last 5 years, he is 86+kg . Even in junior category, he competed in 86+ kg . It is easy to say but difficult to switch the weight category, that too from 86 to 74. They will lose their balance, confidence & few of their strengths.
Comparing with USA wrestlers is funny thing. They have hell lot of facilities and compete for clubs as well. David Taylor has enough time to prepare for this Olympics due to pandemic. Last year is pandemic, none of them participated in any major events. However, David Taylor competed in Pan American Olympic Qualifiers followed by 2 tough competitions against former US champion & Current U-23 champion. Also week-in & week-out , he competed with top athletes in his weight category along with competing with lower & higher categories.
Reg Myles Amine (San Marino). He is not unknown Wrestler. He won 3 European medals in last 3 years and 3 medals in NCAA Division I Wrestling Championships in last 4 years. NCAA Championship is one of the toughest competition in USA and top Wrestlers participate in that Championship. USA is always good in Free Style Wrestlers and in 86 Kg, they have lot of talented Wrestlers.
Nagendra, very good points, but disagree with you on Taylor. He looked in such great condition, totally fresh. He arrived unseeded - pandemic was for every wrestler, but he DID NOT expose himself in tournaments, just exposed himself enough to create fear / doubt in the mind of that Iranian champion and then back he went in the dark. He was working with a plan and it would be wrong to cite pandemic as the reason.
Medal count: 2008 : 3 medals including 1 gold 2012 : 6 medals with 2 silver 2016 : 2 medals with 1 silver 2020 : So far 5 medals with 2 silver. As you mentioned, let's hope we win 2 more medals and it would be best medal count. I would be happy if at-least 1 of them is Gold
I remembered Paris vs Doha but couldn't find an Edit button. Looks like it goes away after 1 hour.
Realistically i think Neeraj Chopra is the only potential for a medal. With 6 throws, the German will almost certainly take gold, so at best he can get a silver, and that too only if none of the other 3 who have thrown further than him in the past throw their best (they haven't this year).
I'm not too optimistic about the women's hockey team, Aditi or Bajrang's chances on their own. They have the potential but there is too much risk of under performance compared to what's needed. So, not sure if we even get to that 7, but based on probabilities at least 1 out of the 3 might very well do what we need.
Nagendra, very good points, but disagree with you on Taylor. He looked in such great condition, totally fresh. He arrived unseeded - pandemic was for every wrestler, but he DID NOT expose himself in tournaments, just exposed himself enough to create fear / doubt in the mind of that Iranian champion and then back he went in the dark. He was working with a plan and it would be wrong to cite pandemic as the reason.
you might be correct.
But as per wiki, he had a bad injury in 2019 & hence missed Pan American games & 2019 World Championships. After 2018 World Championship, apart from 2019 World Championship, there is no major tournament where Asian & American Wrestlers compete against each other.
There will be rain / windy situation when Neeraj Chopra will participate in Finals of Javelin Throw. Not an ideal situation. Variation in technique will be key Adjustment of Power, Precision, Angle all matters in tricky weather.
Comments
I do think he was overhyped but that's not his fault either. I researched analyses about wrestling athletes and I didn't find a single one (other than by Indians) that had him as a potential medal winner. They listed 5 other wrestlers as potential medalists including Amine (the San Marino wrestler). Now, that doesn't usually mean anything (Ravi Dahia was not mentioned as a potential medalist either). A couple of Indian journalists on twitter mentioned that he had a lucky draw and would get to the seminfinals but that it was a 50/50 bout against Amine, which it was.
On Vinesh Phoghat, some of the people who hyped her seem surprised at her loss. They don't think she choked, they think she wrestled well but was outwrestled, and they are confused because she has pinned this wrestler and won the bout easily twice this year. Also, her first round win was against a Rio medalist, and they say she wrestled really well there.
Btw, I'd like to mention here that in my research online, people who know this stuff did not think Bajrang Punia was a medal hopeful (let alone gold contender). The Japanese, Russian, Azeri, Armenian, Kazakh and Hungarian wrestlers were all mentioned in various articles/analyses, and Bajrang wasn't mentioned once. Even the Indian coaching staff (in an article Bad posted here) does not seem to think he has much of a chance. That said, he got a good draw (only 2 of the above 6 are in his half of the draw) and some Indian experts on twitter think he should get to the semifinals (although they refer to the Kyrgyz wrestler in the first round as a bit of a wild card - difficult to beat on his day but it isn't often his day). If he wants a medal, he needs to win against one of the 2 in his half of the draw (Azeri and Kazakh, they think he'll most likely lose to the Azeri in teh semifinal but most likely beat the Kazhak in the bronze medal play off).
Still, 5 medals is awesome, with potential for 4 more (women's hockey, Neeraj Chopra, Aditi Ashok and Bajrang Punia). If we can convert even 2 of those 4, it's still an improvement over London and our best performance ever. Improvement is going to be slow. I'm just hoping we hit 7 in Tokyo, 10 in Doha, 12 in LA, 15 in Brisbane. At that rate, we'll surely get to 30 medals before I die
I think what went wrong fundamentally was that there was a denial of pressure. I believe the system and the training regimen were geared towards making the shooters relaxed. It was almost like you just have to go and do your work, shoot normally, and bang! you end up with a medal.
But it never pans out that way at the Olympics. One of the biggest mistakes you can make on the big stage is to try and run away from pressure.
In fact, what Rana did by wearing that t-shirt was an unintentional simulation of pressure and as expected Manu Bhaker lost to Yadav there. Rather than taking positive from that, the shooters whined and kicked dust.
I don't think he is completely fit in Bronze medal round. Also he is carrying shoulder injury from past 1 year. Also seems like he is not prepared well and could not able to handle pressure in S.F & B.M round. However I'm also disappointed that he didn't win a medal despite getting an easy draw.
Reg his switch. Since last 5 years, he is 86+kg . Even in junior category, he competed in 86+ kg . It is easy to say but difficult to switch the weight category, that too from 86 to 74. They will lose their balance, confidence & few of their strengths.
Comparing with USA wrestlers is funny thing. They have hell lot of facilities and compete for clubs as well.
David Taylor has enough time to prepare for this Olympics due to pandemic. Last year is pandemic, none of them participated in any major events. However, David Taylor competed in Pan American Olympic Qualifiers followed by 2 tough competitions against former US champion & Current U-23 champion. Also week-in & week-out , he competed with top athletes in his weight category along with competing with lower & higher categories.
Reg Myles Amine (San Marino). He is not unknown Wrestler. He won 3 European medals in last 3 years and 3 medals in NCAA Division I Wrestling Championships in last 4 years. NCAA Championship is one of the toughest competition in USA and top Wrestlers participate in that Championship. USA is always good in Free Style Wrestlers and in 86 Kg, they have lot of talented Wrestlers.
thanks mate for the detailed post.
2024 Olympics is in Paris not in Doha
Medal count:
2008 : 3 medals including 1 gold
2012 : 6 medals with 2 silver
2016 : 2 medals with 1 silver
2020 : So far 5 medals with 2 silver. As you mentioned, let's hope we win 2 more medals and it would be best medal count. I would be happy if at-least 1 of them is Gold
Realistically i think Neeraj Chopra is the only potential for a medal. With 6 throws, the German will almost certainly take gold, so at best he can get a silver, and that too only if none of the other 3 who have thrown further than him in the past throw their best (they haven't this year).
I'm not too optimistic about the women's hockey team, Aditi or Bajrang's chances on their own. They have the potential but there is too much risk of under performance compared to what's needed. So, not sure if we even get to that 7, but based on probabilities at least 1 out of the 3 might very well do what we need.
But as per wiki, he had a bad injury in 2019 & hence missed Pan American games & 2019 World Championships. After 2018 World Championship, apart from 2019 World Championship, there is no major tournament where Asian & American Wrestlers compete against each other.
Not an ideal situation.
Variation in technique will be key
Adjustment of Power, Precision, Angle all matters in tricky weather.