yeah agree with @arsenalfan700 it will be too harsh for Stephen if there is no friendly matches and if he goes directly in qualifier no time for get to know the player and eventually listening to savio mandara ,friendly with likes of nepal or srilanka will be good ..singapore could be dangerous for experiment..ofcourse no one want to loose its first match as a coach and that will hit the morale of the team...couple of friendly will be ideal..i guess nepal is available on aiff demand but before playing nepal friendly with srilanka or bangladesh or laos will help....
2018 FIFA World Cup draw: AFC will use FIFA ranking
In December I wrote to Mr. Windsor John, AFC’s Executive Director of Competitions Division, asking for details regarding the seeding criteria for the preliminary draw and group stage draw of the 2018 FIFA World Cup qualifiers (Asian Zone).
Got no reply, so in January I gave it another shot. Lo and behold, I got a reply from AFC - that's the second reply in 7 years. Mr. Man Gil Shin, AFC National Team Competitions Director provided the following bit of information:
"Please be informed that the latest FIFA Ranking available at the time of draw will be applied to the Draw not AFC MA ranking.
Thank you for taking note."
This means the January ranking will be used for the preliminary draw (if the dates announced by the UAE FA are correct), while for the group stage draw the April FIFA ranking will be used.
2018 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC): 10000 simulations (16 January 2015)
As explained earlier, AFC have told me they will use the most recent FIFA ranking available at the time of the draw.
With the preliminary round draw taking place two days before the February FIFA ranking release, the pots are already set. I don't quite understand why they couldn't wait for another 3 or 4 days.
As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 16 January 2015.
Very important: this is based on the fixtures list from FIFA.com. If teams schedule other friendlies things will look different.
FIFA have announced all 209 member association will take part in the preliminaries. Pot 1: India, Sri Lanka, Yemen, Cambodia, Chinese Taipei, Timor-Leste Pot 2: Macau, Nepal, Pakistan, Mongolia, Brunei Darussalam, Bhutan
Most likely to advance to the group stage over 10000 sims.
Assuming the top 6 from the table above advance, this is how the pots would look like. Teams are sorted by the average pot over the 10000 sims.
Pot 1: Iran, Japan, Korea Republic, United Arab Emirates, Uzbekistan, Australia, China PR, Saudi Arabia Pot 2: Jordan, Iraq, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Vietnam, Maldives Pot 3: Palestine, Afghanistan, Philippines, Thailand, Tajikistan, Lebanon, India, Korea DPR Pot 4: Pakistan, Kyrgyzstan, Sri Lanka, Syria, Myanmar, Singapore, Indonesia, Turkmenistan Pot 5: Malaysia, Yemen, Chinese Taipei, Guam, Hong Kong, Bangladesh, Cambodia, Laos
Broken down by pot:
Pot 5
100.00% - Laos 100.00% - Bangladesh 99.98% - Hong Kong 99.44% - Guam 75.75% - Yemen 60.16% - Malaysia 56.63% - Chinese Taipei 50.58% - Cambodia 29.09% - Timor-Leste 24.83% - Mongolia 22.40% - Brunei Darussalam 15.36% - Turkmenistan 14.33% - Nepal 13.75% - Sri Lanka 13.40% - Bhutan 13.05% - Macau 7.86% - Pakistan 1.97% - Indonesia 1.34% - India 0.04% - Korea DPR 0.04% - Singapore
Pot 4
100.00% - Myanmar 99.96% - Singapore 98.03% - Indonesia 96.91% - Syria 84.64% - Turkmenistan 79.06% - Kyrgyzstan 53.38% - Korea DPR 39.84% - Malaysia 24.51% - Sri Lanka 23.98% - Lebanon 20.07% - India 18.22% - Nepal 17.37% - Pakistan 14.30% - Yemen 8.89% - Timor-Leste 6.71% - Mongolia 6.42% - Macau 2.92% - Tajikistan 2.27% - Chinese Taipei 1.64% - Bhutan 0.56% - Guam 0.30% - Brunei Darussalam 0.02% - Hong Kong
100.00% - Bahrain 100.00% - Vietnam 100.00% - Kuwait 93.94% - Qatar 88.12% - Oman 85.47% - Iraq 69.82% - Jordan 62.40% - Maldives 58.54% - Saudi Arabia 18.97% - Korea DPR 18.63% - Palestine 2.79% - China PR 1.28% - Australia 0.04% - Uzbekistan
Pot 1
100.00% - Korea Republic 100.00% - United Arab Emirates 100.00% - Japan 100.00% - Iran 99.96% - Uzbekistan 98.72% - Australia 97.21% - China PR 41.46% - Saudi Arabia 30.18% - Jordan 14.53% - Iraq 11.88% - Oman 6.06% - Qatar
Comments
Friday, January 16, 2015
2018 FIFA World Cup draw: AFC will use FIFA ranking
Got no reply, so in January I gave it another shot. Lo and behold, I got a reply from AFC - that's the second reply in 7 years. Mr. Man Gil Shin, AFC National Team Competitions Director provided the following bit of information:
"Please be informed that the latest FIFA Ranking available at the time of draw will be applied to the Draw not AFC MA ranking.
Thank you for taking note."
This means the January ranking will be used for the preliminary draw (if the dates announced by the UAE FA are correct), while for the group stage draw the April FIFA ranking will be used.
Friday, January 16, 2015
2018 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC): 10000 simulations (16 January 2015)
With the preliminary round draw taking place two days before the February FIFA ranking release, the pots are already set. I don't quite understand why they couldn't wait for another 3 or 4 days.
As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 16 January 2015.
Very important: this is based on the fixtures list from FIFA.com. If teams schedule other friendlies things will look different.
FIFA have announced all 209 member association will take part in the preliminaries.
Pot 1: India, Sri Lanka, Yemen, Cambodia, Chinese Taipei, Timor-Leste
Pot 2: Macau, Nepal, Pakistan, Mongolia, Brunei Darussalam, Bhutan
Most likely to advance to the group stage over 10000 sims.
92.81% - Yemen
86.51% - India
64.19% - Sri Lanka
58.90% - Chinese Taipei
57.26% - Pakistan
50.58% - Cambodia
50.37% - Nepal
42.84% - Timor-Leste
33.85% - Mongolia
24.95% - Macau
22.70% - Brunei Darussalam
15.04% - Bhutan
Assuming the top 6 from the table above advance, this is how the pots would look like. Teams are sorted by the average pot over the 10000 sims.
Pot 1: Iran, Japan, Korea Republic, United Arab Emirates, Uzbekistan, Australia, China PR, Saudi Arabia
Pot 2: Jordan, Iraq, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Vietnam, Maldives
Pot 3: Palestine, Afghanistan, Philippines, Thailand, Tajikistan, Lebanon, India, Korea DPR
Pot 4: Pakistan, Kyrgyzstan, Sri Lanka, Syria, Myanmar, Singapore, Indonesia, Turkmenistan
Pot 5: Malaysia, Yemen, Chinese Taipei, Guam, Hong Kong, Bangladesh, Cambodia, Laos
Broken down by pot:
Pot 5
100.00% - Laos
100.00% - Bangladesh
99.98% - Hong Kong
99.44% - Guam
75.75% - Yemen
60.16% - Malaysia
56.63% - Chinese Taipei
50.58% - Cambodia
29.09% - Timor-Leste
24.83% - Mongolia
22.40% - Brunei Darussalam
15.36% - Turkmenistan
14.33% - Nepal
13.75% - Sri Lanka
13.40% - Bhutan
13.05% - Macau
7.86% - Pakistan
1.97% - Indonesia
1.34% - India
0.04% - Korea DPR
0.04% - Singapore
Pot 4
100.00% - Myanmar
99.96% - Singapore
98.03% - Indonesia
96.91% - Syria
84.64% - Turkmenistan
79.06% - Kyrgyzstan
53.38% - Korea DPR
39.84% - Malaysia
24.51% - Sri Lanka
23.98% - Lebanon
20.07% - India
18.22% - Nepal
17.37% - Pakistan
14.30% - Yemen
8.89% - Timor-Leste
6.71% - Mongolia
6.42% - Macau
2.92% - Tajikistan
2.27% - Chinese Taipei
1.64% - Bhutan
0.56% - Guam
0.30% - Brunei Darussalam
0.02% - Hong Kong
Pot 3
100.00% - Philippines
100.00% - Afghanistan
100.00% - Thailand
97.08% - Tajikistan
81.37% - Palestine
76.02% - Lebanon
65.10% - India
37.60% - Maldives
32.03% - Pakistan
27.61% - Korea DPR
25.93% - Sri Lanka
20.94% - Kyrgyzstan
17.82% - Nepal
5.48% - Macau
4.86% - Timor-Leste
3.09% - Syria
2.76% - Yemen
2.31% - Mongolia
Pot 2
100.00% - Bahrain
100.00% - Vietnam
100.00% - Kuwait
93.94% - Qatar
88.12% - Oman
85.47% - Iraq
69.82% - Jordan
62.40% - Maldives
58.54% - Saudi Arabia
18.97% - Korea DPR
18.63% - Palestine
2.79% - China PR
1.28% - Australia
0.04% - Uzbekistan
Pot 1
100.00% - Korea Republic
100.00% - United Arab Emirates
100.00% - Japan
100.00% - Iran
99.96% - Uzbekistan
98.72% - Australia
97.21% - China PR
41.46% - Saudi Arabia
30.18% - Jordan
14.53% - Iraq
11.88% - Oman
6.06% - Qatar