@Cyberton BFC should cross the last 16 hurdle & from QF stage it is always 50-50 in any competition. Also the QF will be played in Indian Football season 2016-17.... will that help or not is to be seen. Good Luck to BFC....after all they are representing India.
I was checking at Relegation scenario.. this is how it looks like if all teams end at same point i.e. 16 points which will happen if SLFC drew final match and SAL and MFC loses the match. This table will give clearer idea on H2H which is the first tie breaker
AZWL SAL MFC SLFC TOTAL Current GD
AZWL 0 1 4 1 6 -6
SAL 4 0 1 3 8 -5
MFC 1 4 0 4 9 -3
SLFC 4 3 1 0 8 -10
Lets start the chances of individual teams with the current favourites
Aizawl FC:- They being favourite is because they have nothing in their hand other than probability books in their hands. i) SLFC losing the match would mean they can relax and stay at the top for one more season. ii) But, if SLFC ends up getting any point, their survival will be given a chance in the tie breaker only if MFC loses its final game and only one of SLFC and Sal stay at 16 points. In this case, AZWL, MFC and sal/SLFC will share 5 points in H2H table and would result in second tie-breakar GD which is in pretty decent state compared to SLFC and on par with Sal in which case MFC is likely to be safe having the best GD among the four.
Shillong Lajong FC:- i) Shillong Lajong like the other two teams got easy rule which is the team which win last round survives independent of other results. ii) But, it is also the only team which is loses last match will have 0% chance to survive, which thankfully is not the case for MFC and Sal. iii) If SLFC draws the final match, they should hope they dont face the H2H table with salgaocar out of the scenario and MFC in it as in this case the thing is expected to go to GD and they have the worst GD of all.
So, for SLFC their aim is somewhat simpler - win and screw this H2H table else hope Sal and MFC get same no of points in the final round.
Mumbai FC and Salgaocar FC are best placed to survive the league, so going with alphabetic order. Both teams, if get any point from the match survive the league.
Mumbai FC:- i) Mumbai FC in case loses the final match at a scoreline of less than 2 goals diff can survive the league, if they find in company of at least one of Sal/ SLFC along with Aizawl at 16 points. But will be relegated if MFC loses and ends up only with Aizawl in 16 points.
For MFC, it is simpler to survive- get a result or book a seat of more than 2 in the table at 16 points.
Salgaocar FC:- i) Salgaocar in case loses the match should be hoping that either all teams fall under criteria or MFC gets a result and they dont lose by more than 1 goal. As incase SLFC get a win and MFC get at least a point, then SAL and AFC are dealing in GD of -6 and -5, but Sal having scored more goals will survive in that situation.
For Salgaocar, it is simple to survive - get a result or lose by single goal to be in better situation than Aizawl and if conceded more than 1 goal should be hoping SLFC draw or lose the final match.
Comments
this is how it looks like if all teams end at same point i.e. 16 points which will happen if SLFC drew final match and SAL and MFC loses the match. This table will give clearer idea on H2H which is the first tie breaker
Lets start the chances of individual teams with the current favourites
Aizawl FC:-
They being favourite is because they have nothing in their hand other than probability books in their hands.
i) SLFC losing the match would mean they can relax and stay at the top for one more season.
ii) But, if SLFC ends up getting any point, their survival will be given a chance in the tie breaker only if MFC loses its final game and only one of SLFC and Sal stay at 16 points. In this case, AZWL, MFC and sal/SLFC will share 5 points in H2H table and would result in second tie-breakar GD which is in pretty decent state compared to SLFC and on par with Sal in which case MFC is likely to be safe having the best GD among the four.
Shillong Lajong FC:-
i) Shillong Lajong like the other two teams got easy rule which is the team which win last round survives independent of other results.
ii) But, it is also the only team which is loses last match will have 0% chance to survive, which thankfully is not the case for MFC and Sal.
iii) If SLFC draws the final match, they should hope they dont face the H2H table with salgaocar out of the scenario and MFC in it as in this case the thing is expected to go to GD and they have the worst GD of all.
So, for SLFC their aim is somewhat simpler - win and screw this H2H table else hope Sal and MFC get same no of points in the final round.
Mumbai FC and Salgaocar FC are best placed to survive the league, so going with alphabetic order. Both teams, if get any point from the match survive the league.
Mumbai FC:-
i) Mumbai FC in case loses the final match at a scoreline of less than 2 goals diff can survive the league, if they find in company of at least one of Sal/ SLFC along with Aizawl at 16 points. But will be relegated if MFC loses and ends up only with Aizawl in 16 points.
For MFC, it is simpler to survive- get a result or book a seat of more than 2 in the table at 16 points.
Salgaocar FC:-
i) Salgaocar in case loses the match should be hoping that either all teams fall under criteria or MFC gets a result and they dont lose by more than 1 goal. As incase SLFC get a win and MFC get at least a point, then SAL and AFC are dealing in GD of -6 and -5, but Sal having scored more goals will survive in that situation.
For Salgaocar, it is simple to survive - get a result or lose by single goal to be in better situation than Aizawl and if conceded more than 1 goal should be hoping SLFC draw or lose the final match.
my article with same info
http://www.abcdfootball.com/2016/04/hero-i-league-2015-16-relegation.html
BFC the deserving champions. here is the highlights video and celebration. Congratulations to them !!
http://www.goal.com/en-india/news/archive/2?ICID=OP
finally women league in india league will start october & ends in march
http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/index.aspx?eid=31808&dt=20160421#