While the line between preparedness and panic can seem rather thin, especially in the midst of a pandemic, Amir Ullah Khan, a development economist and public health expert, says that India must do two things immediately: ban all large-scale gatherings and launch a massive information and awareness campaign on basic hygiene and social protection.
“Things like the Indian Premier League must shut down. It is crazy if we continue with it," he said. “And the phone caller tune message is ridiculously insufficient. We should be spreading information in every possible language through a variety of mediums."
Khan added: “The coming impact is going to be huge. This is no longer a question of if, but when. Even if this (Covid-19) doesn’t turn out to be the deadliest flu, the economic impact is going to big. We may be fast moving towards a point where there are no flights operating anywhere in the world." Preliminary estimates put losses in the aviation sector at $113 billion.
Strangely, Covid-19 may thus end up pushing the world closer to how it looked in 1918 by shutting down air travel. And that is the key difference on the negative side between now and a century ago: connectivity and ease of travel. It was a key metric that went into the World Health Organization’s (WHO’s) decision to declare a pandemic.
The advice is clear: expand surveillance. “Countries need to prepare for more hospital admissions," Soumya Swaminathan, chief scientist at WHO told Mint. “The main lesson from China is that this virus can be contained and controlled, if effective public health action is taken speedily."
Instead, we (India) have been dragging our feet for two months, said Khan. “We can’t believe that things like the weather will take care of it. If that was the case, the virus wouldn’t have spread to tropical places like Singapore and Philippines," he added.
In the next few weeks, to avoid a repeat of 1918, the key parameter beyond containment would be extensive testing of all those who exhibit cold-like symptoms, especially as many suspected patients have already been able to travel, work and socialize undetected inside the country for significant periods of time.
“We should identify cases as quickly as possible," said Lalit Kant, a researcher at the Public Health Foundation of India. “In a pandemic, quietness is always worrying. If we go by what has happened in other countries, then we should be getting prepared." (South Korea, for example, set up an extensive protocol in just a few weeks and tested more than 200,000 people).
In conclusion
Ultimately, irrespective of how the next few weeks play out, Covid-19 may change the world in profound ways, much like the 1918 influenza pandemic.
A century ago, population profiles got profoundly altered (the decade between 1911 and 1921 was the only census period in which India’s population fell). The devastation of the pandemic also, in no small part, fuelled the Indian independence movement.
In 2020, the changes may be more economic and social, if not political. Our view on vaccines and the investments that go into it, for example, may change immediately, said K.S.James, a demographer at the International Institute of Population Studies.
“Only for the last 100-or-so years, population growth above 1% a year has been common. We are fortunately living at a unique moment in time. But now, communicable diseases are making a comeback. They are leaving impacts that serious wars used to earlier. New research on vaccines is inevitable," he said.
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Why 1918 matters in India’s corona war
Lessons for India
While the line between preparedness and panic can seem rather thin, especially in the midst of a pandemic, Amir Ullah Khan, a development economist and public health expert, says that India must do two things immediately: ban all large-scale gatherings and launch a massive information and awareness campaign on basic hygiene and social protection.
“Things like the Indian Premier League must shut down. It is crazy if we continue with it," he said. “And the phone caller tune message is ridiculously insufficient. We should be spreading information in every possible language through a variety of mediums."
Khan added: “The coming impact is going to be huge. This is no longer a question of if, but when. Even if this (Covid-19) doesn’t turn out to be the deadliest flu, the economic impact is going to big. We may be fast moving towards a point where there are no flights operating anywhere in the world." Preliminary estimates put losses in the aviation sector at $113 billion.
Strangely, Covid-19 may thus end up pushing the world closer to how it looked in 1918 by shutting down air travel. And that is the key difference on the negative side between now and a century ago: connectivity and ease of travel. It was a key metric that went into the World Health Organization’s (WHO’s) decision to declare a pandemic.
The advice is clear: expand surveillance. “Countries need to prepare for more hospital admissions," Soumya Swaminathan, chief scientist at WHO told Mint. “The main lesson from China is that this virus can be contained and controlled, if effective public health action is taken speedily."
Instead, we (India) have been dragging our feet for two months, said Khan. “We can’t believe that things like the weather will take care of it. If that was the case, the virus wouldn’t have spread to tropical places like Singapore and Philippines," he added.
In the next few weeks, to avoid a repeat of 1918, the key parameter beyond containment would be extensive testing of all those who exhibit cold-like symptoms, especially as many suspected patients have already been able to travel, work and socialize undetected inside the country for significant periods of time.
“We should identify cases as quickly as possible," said Lalit Kant, a researcher at the Public Health Foundation of India. “In a pandemic, quietness is always worrying. If we go by what has happened in other countries, then we should be getting prepared." (South Korea, for example, set up an extensive protocol in just a few weeks and tested more than 200,000 people).
In conclusion
Ultimately, irrespective of how the next few weeks play out, Covid-19 may change the world in profound ways, much like the 1918 influenza pandemic.
A century ago, population profiles got profoundly altered (the decade between 1911 and 1921 was the only census period in which India’s population fell). The devastation of the pandemic also, in no small part, fuelled the Indian independence movement.
In 2020, the changes may be more economic and social, if not political. Our view on vaccines and the investments that go into it, for example, may change immediately, said K.S.James, a demographer at the International Institute of Population Studies.
“Only for the last 100-or-so years, population growth above 1% a year has been common. We are fortunately living at a unique moment in time. But now, communicable diseases are making a comeback. They are leaving impacts that serious wars used to earlier. New research on vaccines is inevitable," he said.