India at Tokyo 2020: A Roadmap

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  • spartasparta Jamshedpur FC2063 Points
    Major Sporting Events in 2022

    Winter olympics 4 Feb to 20 Feb    (Beijing)

    Commonwealth games 28 July to 8 August   (Birmingham)

    Asian games 10 September to 25 September  (Hangzhou)

    World cup Football 21 November to 18 December  (Qatar)
    Athletics world championship in 2022 from 15th July to 24th July will also be keenly watched due to Neeraj Chopra and he needs to touch 90 there else Vetter and others might not miss it everytime.

    Also, ever improving Avinash Sable and Kamalpreet Kaur will be watched too.
    munna219777deepuBad
  • Pedro GonzalesPedro Gonzales 223 Points
    edited August 2021
    Nagendra said:
    ;Pedro Gonzales

    Medal count:
    2008 : 3 medals including 1 gold
    2012 : 6 medals with 2 silver
    2016 : 2 medals with 1 silver
    2020 :
    So far 5 medals with 2 silver. As you mentioned, let's hope we win 2 more medals and it would be best medal count. I would be happy if at-least 1 of them is Gold
    As you were hoping for, we got our best medal count.
    Still, 5 medals is awesome, with potential for 4 more (women's hockey, Neeraj Chopra, Aditi Ashok and Bajrang Punia). If we can convert even 2 of those 4, it's still an improvement over London and our best performance ever. Improvement is going to be slow. I'm just hoping we hit 7 in Tokyo, 10 in Paris, 12 in LA, 15 in Brisbane. At that rate, we'll surely get to 30 medals before I die :)
    So we hit the 7 medal count this time. I feel very optimistic for Paris because of the age of our best athletes. See below:
    Medal winners:
    Chopra 23
    Chanu 27
    Dahiya 23
    Bajrang Punia 27
    Sindhu 26
    Borgohain 23
    Near misses:
    Ashok 23
    Kamalpreet Kaur 25
    Deepak Punia 22

    Others with potential:
    Rankireddy/Shetty 20/24 (they beat the gold medalists)
    Phogat 26
    Sonam Malik 18
    Anshu Malik 20

    The shooting and archery squads disappointed but look at their ages (and the number of #1 and #2 rankings); they'll be back in 2024 with a better performance
    Shooting:
    Panwar 18 (#2)
    Bhaker 19 (#2)
    Saurabh Chaudhary 19 (#2)
    Tomar 20 (#2)
    Valairavan 22 (#1)
    Yadav 23
    Deswal 24 (#1)
    Bajwa 25
    Maudgil 27
    Chandela 28
    Sarnobat 30 (#2)
    Verma 32 (#1)

    At a minimum ranking indicates a level of consistency. What they need to focus on now is mental health and composure under pressure.

    Archery:
    Deepika Kumari 27
    Das 29
    Jadhav 25

    Both hockey teams were young too.

    All in all, Paris 2024 should be an improvement over the 7 we got here (and i'm happy with the 7).

    Carbon_14Nagendrakartik91
  • munna219777munna219777 27811 Points
    edited August 2021
    I think we are giving too much importance to age and want to repeat the same squad again and again.

    Sport is all about performance and may the best player represent India- in every sport.
    It is not about  player. Country is represented.

    Take Boxing for example. Other then Lovelina, it was an embarassing performance.

    Why are we still pushing Vikas Krishan and Shiva Thapa in Boxing - it is 10 years with them now !!!
    Babyrojisana Chanu (51kg), Arundhati Choudhary (69kg), Sanamacha Chanu (75kg), Ankit Narwal (64kg), Vishal Gupta (91kg), Bishwamitra Chongtham (49kg)  Sachin (56kg)  Naman Tanwar 91 kg  Kavinder Bisht, Solanki.  Some other young boxers are coming from Manipur.

    Same in Shooting, Archery. Give chance to new talent.

    Use upcoming Asian Games and Commonwealth Games

    Even if a 17 year old wins a Gold Medal for China, his / her place is not guaranteed. China will send a 16 year old next time who will be better player !!!

    Use Nationals to send best player for easiest Qualifying route.


    NagendraPedro GonzalesspartaRonnysouravindiaindian_goonerBadkartik91
  • Another way to tally improvement over the years is ranking in total medals or true ranking (# of golds, # of silvers & # of bronze).
    Year, Olympics, Ranking by GSB, Ranking by total medal count, Medals
    1996, Barcelona, 71, 71 (1B)
    2000, Sydney, 71, 71 (1B)
    2004, Athens, 65, 68 (1S)
    2008, Beijing, 51, 52 (1G, 3B)
    2012, London, 57, 38 (2S, 4B)
    2016, Rio, 67, 64, (1S, 1B)
    2020 Tokyo, 48, 36 (1G, 2S, 4B)



    BadNagendra
  • Finally,  a look at where we stand right now compared to some other countries. I'm looking at the true ranking (GSB) for this.
    First off, Asian countries: 
    1) China (2)
    2) Japan (3)
    3) S. Korea (16)
    4) Iran (27)
    5) Uzbekistan (32)
    6) Taiwan (34)
    7) Qatar (41, 2 Gold and 1 Bronze)
    8) India (48)

    This is about where India performs in the Asian games, with Qatar usually a bit behind us, having made progress because of the success of their imports (and now kids of imports).

    African countries ahead of us
    1) Kenya (19)
    2) Uganda (36)
     
    Other non-white countries (mostly a proxy for rich countries) ahead of us
    1) Brazil (12)
    2) Cuba (14)
    3) Jamaica (21)
    4) Ecuador (38)
    5) Bahamas (42)
    6) Venezuela (46)

    A bunch of these countries fall behind us if we use total medal count. Only China, Japan, Brazil, S. Korea, Cuba, Taiwan, Kenya, Jamaica and Iran remain (and Kazakstan gets added - 8 total medals but 0 golds) to the list.

    I'd like us to get to the top 20 in terms of total medals by LA (Paris is only 3 years away, so too close for there to be a big change). At Tokyo that would have needed 13 medals. I see us getting there by LA. If we need to get there in terms of GSB ranking, we'd have needed 4 Golds and 2 silvers. I don't see us doing that until we specialize in a couple of sports (Shooting seems the best bet to me), but i don't see us providing the level of training, research and support that would require.

    Breaking into the top 10 would have required 33 medals in Tokyo. That requires sending a far larger squad, and an improvement in sports we only have a token presence in (or no presence) now (swimming, diving, gymnastics - artistic and rhythmic, fencing, team sports, etc). Not something i see for 30 years at least.
     
    munna219777Carbon_14Nagendraindian_goonerBad
  • Pedro GonzalesPedro Gonzales 223 Points
    edited August 2021

    Use Nationals to send best player for easiest Qualifying route.


    Does this not automatically happen in every sport? I know it happened in wrestling (that's how Sakshi Malike was ousted), and in athletics, individual athletes qualify based on their performance. Based on Bad's updates on this thread, I thought this was the case for Shooting too. Maybe at some point we'll have so many qualify in one sport that we'll hit the national quota and will have to pick and choose but that's not the case now. How are the squads picked for Archery and Boxing for the qualifying tournaments?
    munna219777
  • munna219777munna219777 27811 Points
    @Pedro Gonzales

    https://www.indiatvnews.com/sports/other/indian-shooters-fire-blanks-as-medal-myth-breaks-at-tokyo-olympics-723328


    This article has done well in explaining the Ranking myth and how the entry into Core Group for Olympics was closed in 2020 itself for other shooters. This makes the Bench strength and latest  National Championship redundant if you select core group one year in advance irrespective of current form, this debacle is not surprising. 
    ashindia
  • @Pedro Gonzales

    https://www.indiatvnews.com/sports/other/indian-shooters-fire-blanks-as-medal-myth-breaks-at-tokyo-olympics-723328


    This article has done well in explaining the Ranking myth and how the entry into Core Group for Olympics was closed in 2020 itself for other shooters. This makes the Bench strength and latest  National Championship redundant if you select core group one year in advance irrespective of current form, this debacle is not surprising. 
    Interesting take, but it doesn't suggest that nepotism or favoritism was at play, more like mismanagement and lack of creativity. I've heard of good things about the Shooting Federation, though, especially with respect to integrating junior shooters. And, I do think this crop (and others who will hopefully have a platform again now that Covid is looking like it's behind us) will spring back in 2022 with a chip on their shoulder and something to prove. 
    Bad
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