It's clear that the East Asian sides are more tactically mature. Japan and Korea were able to tweak their formations and bring on players to suit their various systems.
Saudi played with a lot of bluster and passion but turned very predictable after 15 minutes against Poland. Iran had the oldest squad in the tournament and it showed when they had to chase the game against the US. I expect them to decline and struggle a bit for the next few years unless there's a major overhaul of their squad.
I must admit, I didn't expect anything from Australia before this tournament. They're not my favourite team, but won me over by their gutsy performances.
What will become of Qatar now? Their players decided to stay put and refuse offers from Europe. On the evidence of their showing this time, there won't be any more suitors sniffing around them now. Their youth teams have not been performing that well in recent times either.
Very simply, xG (or expected goals) is the probability that a shot will result in a goal based on the characteristics of that shot and the events leading up to it. Some of these characteristics/variables include:
Location of shooter: How far was it from the goal and at what angle on the pitch?
Body part: Was it a header or off the shooter's foot?
Type of pass: Was it from a through ball, cross, set piece, etc?
Type of attack: Was it from an established possession? Was it off a rebound? Did the defense have time to get in position? Did it follow a dribble?
Every shot is compared to thousands of shots with similar characteristics to determine the probability that this shot will result in a goal. That probability is the expected goal total. An xG of 0 is a certain miss, while an xG of 1 is a certain goal. An xG of .5 would indicate that if identical shots were attempted 10 times, 5 would be expected to result in a goal.
There are a number of xG models that use similar techniques and variables, which attempt to reach the same conclusion. The model that FBref uses is provided by Opta. Opta's xG model includes a number of factors above just factors such as the location and angle. Their model also accounts for the clarity of the shooter's path to the goal, the amount of pressure the shooter is under from defensive players, the position of the goalkeeper, and more. That means that their xG model factors in the defense and goalkeeping when determining the odds of the shot reaching the goal.
Take this Diego Jota goal vs Southampton for example. The shot was taken directly in front of the goal from very close range. It's a very good chance. Using an older model that accounts for location, angle, pass type, and such, it would have a 0.68 xG. However, Opta's model also accounts for the fact that the goalkeeper is out of position and there's no defender in the way, which boosts the xG of this shot even higher, to 0.90.
xG does not take into account the quality of player(s) involved in a particular play. It is an estimate of how the average player or team would perform in a similar situation.
@indian_gooner: From what I understand, since an xG of 1 is a certain goal, Lukaku, who had an xG of 1.67, had a very high chance of scoring goals, but he missed them.
"His 1.67 xG was the third most in any half by a player in a World Cup Game since 1966."--This means, that since 1966, only two more players, in a single half, have had more chances of scoring goals than Lukaku
" Additionally, 17 players with at least 1.15 xG in a half in a World Cup match since 1966 scored at least 1 goal in the half."--This means that 17 players since 1966, who have had an xG of 1.15, which is lesser than that of Lukaku, have scored at least one goal. This implies that Lukaku had avery high chance of scoring at least a goal
thanks for the clarification. this could be written as blog.
Comments
South Korea beat Portugal 2-1 and are through to the next round
Uruguay beat Ghana 2-0 but are out because of GD
What a WC this is turning out for Asian teams...yesterday Japan and today South Korea
Iran and Saudi Arabia also performed creditably, only Qatar was disappointing
Europe - 8 (13)
Asia - 3 (6)
South America - 2 (4)
Africa - 2 (5)
North America - 1 (4)
Iran and Saudi Arabia also had a chance to qualify till the last minute.
Saudi played with a lot of bluster and passion but turned very predictable after 15 minutes against Poland. Iran had the oldest squad in the tournament and it showed when they had to chase the game against the US. I expect them to decline and struggle a bit for the next few years unless there's a major overhaul of their squad.
I must admit, I didn't expect anything from Australia before this tournament. They're not my favourite team, but won me over by their gutsy performances.
What will become of Qatar now? Their players decided to stay put and refuse offers from Europe. On the evidence of their showing this time, there won't be any more suitors sniffing around them now. Their youth teams have not been performing that well in recent times either.
The only Asian representative left is South Korea, who will be facing Brazil in about an hour
It is definitely not one-sided match and S.Korea is unlucky most of times & at receiving end.